Who counts — the three population bases, priced
2026-07-19 · wave 37 · MECHANISM lane · prices decision ③ (DECISIONS.md) so the ruling can be made on numbers. The pool is identical in every variant — $353–394B/yr (mid ≈$374B, NUMBERS #4) — because the charge side doesn't change; the choice only divides the same pool among different share-holders.
The population bases (measured)
| Base | Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| All residents (current draft) | 41.47M | StatCan quarterly estimates, Q1 2026 (w1) |
| Adults 18+ | 34.0M (81.65% of residents) | StatCan 17-10-0005-01, July 2025: all ages 41,651,653; 0–17 = 7,642,183; share applied to the Q1 2026 base |
| Non-permanent residents | 2.56M | StatCan 17-10-0121-01, Q2 2026 (2026-04-01): 2,558,562 |
| Citizens (all ages) | ≈35.5–36M (≈86%) | Two methods reconciled below |
Citizens estimate: (a) subtraction — residents minus NPRs minus non-citizen permanent residents (2021 Census stock ≈2.2M, plus ~1.8M PR landings 2022–25, minus ~1.1–1.2M naturalizations) ≈ 36.1M; (b) census-anchored — 33.12M citizens (2021) + births (all jus soli) net of citizen deaths (+0.2M) + naturalizations (+1.15M), adjusted for census net undercount ≈ 35.3M. Band: 35.5–36M; pricing uses 35.7M. (No StatCan table publishes a current citizen count directly; both methods and their inputs are shown so the number can be attacked.)
The variants, priced (pool mid $374B/yr; ranges scale with $353–394B)
| Variant | Shares | Flow per share | vs current | Family of four | Single adult renter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Per-resident, all ages (current) | 41.47M | ≈$9,000/yr | — | ≈$36,100 (4 shares) | ≈$9,000 |
| Per-adult | 33.86M | ≈$11,000/yr | +22% | ≈$22,100 (2 shares) | ≈$11,000 |
| Citizens-only, all ages | ≈35.7M | ≈$10,500/yr | +16% | ≈$41,900 (if all citizens) | $0 if non-citizen |
| Citizen adults only | ≈29.5M | ≈$12,700/yr | +41% | ≈$25,400 | $0 if non-citizen |
What each variant actually does
Per-adult pays singles and childless couples ~22% more by cutting the family of four 39%. It reverses the design's strongest political protection — under per-resident, households with children are the most-shielded class; under per-adult they are the least. It also doesn't remove the child-money design question; it just answers it with "children get nothing."
Citizens-only excludes ≈5.8M residents (14%) — and they are almost precisely the most land-poor 14%. Non-permanent residents own essentially no land; recent permanent residents rent at far above national rates. Every excluded person keeps paying ground rent through their landlord (the charge side is universal — land pays regardless of who holds it), while receiving no share. The settlement's own moral premise — everyone's presence makes the ground valuable — applies to them fully: they are in the town square. Under exclusion, Groundshare becomes a citizenship dividend funded partly by the ground rent of non-citizens. That should be stated exactly that plainly before it's chosen.
The precedent cuts against citizenship tests: Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend — the only long-running rent dividend on the continent — requires residency (with intent to remain), not citizenship, and includes children. Four decades of political durability on exactly the base Groundshare's draft uses.
If a boundary concession is ever needed politically, a residency-tenure requirement (e.g., Alaska's full-calendar-year rule) distorts far less than a citizenship test: it excludes the transient margin rather than a settled land-poor class, and it doesn't create a two-tier town square. Priced: a 12-month-residency rule at current NPR churn would move the base by well under 1M shares (<3% on the per-share flow).
Recommendation (Floyd's ruling, DECISIONS ③)
Keep per-resident, all ages. It is the variant whose arithmetic we've published throughout (NUMBERS #5–7), the strongest family protection, the Alaska-tested base, and the only one whose recipient set matches the moral argument's own definition of the value-creating community. If Q2 is commissioned, have it price all three variants anyway — the comparison table above is aggregate-only; microsimulation would give the full distributions.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0005-01, population estimates by age, July 1 2025 (all ages 41,651,653; age 0–17 = 7,642,183), retrieved 2026-07-19.
- Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0121-01, non-permanent residents by type, Q2 2026 = 2,558,562, retrieved 2026-07-19.
- Statistics Canada, 2021 Census — citizenship (citizens 33,121,980 of 36,328,480); IRCC permanent-resident landings and citizenship grants 2022–2025 (public operational data) for the reconciliation band.
- Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend eligibility: residency-based, all ages. https://pfd.alaska.gov/eligibility/eligibility-requirements
- Pool and per-share basis:
NUMBERS.md#4–7.