The Sherbrooke land share — first measurement outside BC
2026-07-18 · wave 20 · ESTIMATE lane, deepening mode · the first parcel-level measurement under Quebec's assessment regime, from the province's open roll data.
What was measured
Quebec publishes every municipality's full assessment roll as open XML (MAMH standard schema) on a provincial open-data host. Sherbrooke's 2026 roll (56,325 assessment units) was downloaded and parsed in full this wave:
| Segment | Units | Land value | Building value | Land share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All units | 56,325 | $9.93B | $23.52B | 29.7% |
| Residential (usage 1xxx) | 48,096 | $6.59B | $17.53B | 27.3% |
| Single-family (usage 1000) | 47,098 | $6.38B | $16.71B | 27.6% |
| Vacant land (9xxx) | 4,648 | $0.80B | $0.02B | 97.1% |
Why this number matters
- The measured spectrum now brackets the national average. Vancouver 75% > national NBSA/DHEA join 52.7% (w3) > Victoria 69% > Sherbrooke 28–30%. The economy-wide 52.7% assumption used in the incidence table is no longer just an accounting ratio — it sits inside directly measured endpoints, exactly where a population-weighted mix of expensive metros and affordable cities should put it. This is the strongest validation the incidence machinery has had.
- Land share tracks location scarcity, as theory says it should. Sherbrooke's structures outvalue its ground three-to-one; Vancouver's ground outvalues its structures three-to-one. Same country, same century — the difference is what everyone else's presence does to the dirt. (This is the two-lots story from the narrative kit, measured.)
- Affordable-city homeowners are even safer than modeled. At a ~28% residential land share, the typical Sherbrooke home carries so little land value that its household sits far below the crossover, and the 20-year phase-in price impact is ≈−19% of property value (below even the w10 "low-land-share" band of −22%).
- The 60–80% band is a major-metro band, not a universal one. NUMBERS.md row 17 now carries a three-city spectrum and the rule: city-specific shares where rolls publish; the metro band only for major metros; small-city shares in the 25–40% range pending more measurements.
- Quebec is the best data province for the academic program. One provincial host serves every municipality's full roll — no city-by-city portal hunting as in BC. (The City of Montreal's own portal blocked our fetch; the provincial host did not. Montreal's full roll is feasible in a dedicated wave — it is simply large.)
Caveats
- Assessment values (2026 roll, July 2024 valuation base under Quebec's three-year cycle); value-weighted shares; Quebec assessors' land/building allocation methodology differs from BC Assessment's — cross-regime comparisons carry that caveat inherently.
- One mid-size city; Trois-Rivières/Gatineau/Laval queued to fill the Quebec picture, Montreal for the metro anchor.
Sources
- MAMH / Données Québec, Rôles d'évaluation foncière du Québec — Sherbrooke RL43027_2026.xml (68MB, 56,325 units), downloaded and parsed in full 2026-07-18. https://www.donneesquebec.ca/recherche/dataset/roles-d-evaluation-fonciere-du-quebec
- MAMH RL schema (RL0402A land value, RL0403A building value, RL0105A usage code).
- Comparisons:
analysis/vancouver-land-share.md(w9),analysis/victoria-land-share.md(w19),analysis/household-incidence.md(w3).